Buying During Instability: Should You Act Now or Wait?
By Michele-V. Guzzo, Real Estate Broker — MVG Immobilier | Royal LePage Urbain
You’ve probably had this conversation with yourself several times over the past few weeks. Maybe this morning.
Is this the right time to buy? With everything going on — the war in the Middle East, American tariffs, a slowing economy — should I wait for things to settle down? But if I wait, am I going to miss my window? What if prices climb back up the moment the uncertainty fades?
This back-and-forth is exhausting. And it’s completely normal. In May 2026, the signals are contradictory, the news is heavy, and nobody is giving you a clear answer. Your broker says it’s a good time. The people around you say to wait. The article you read yesterday morning convinced you to act. The one you read this afternoon gave you doubts all over again.
This isn’t a failure of judgment on your part. It’s a reflection of a context that is genuinely difficult to read.
But here’s what the data demonstrates, cycle after cycle: confusion doesn’t resolve itself by waiting for more information. It resolves itself by asking the right questions.
What’s Really Happening in 2026
Before talking about your decision, the context deserves to be laid out clearly — not to alarm you, but to give you an accurate picture of what you’re deciding in.
The Bank of Canada has held its policy rate at 2.25% for the third consecutive time in 2026 — in January, March, and April. This isn’t hesitation. It’s a deliberate position in a two-sided risk environment: on one side, a Canadian economy slowing under the weight of American tariffs and GDP growth projected at 1.2% this year. On the other, inflation ticking back up — 2.4% in March versus 1.8% in February — driven by energy price increases tied to the war in the Middle East.
The Bank is looking in both directions at once. It could cut if the economy deteriorates further. It could hike if inflation accelerates. For now, it holds. And the majority of economists — including TD Economics — expect this stability to last through the rest of the year.
What that means for you: mortgage rates, both variable and fixed, are moving within a predictable range today. That’s not a guarantee for tomorrow. But it is a solid foundation on which to plan.
The Temptation to Wait — and What It Really Costs
Waiting is tempting. It feels like the wisest option when the news is bad. It gives you a sense of control.
But wait for what, exactly? For the war to end? For tariffs to be resolved? For the economy to pick up? These events aren’t on your calendar. They’re not on anyone’s calendar.
What the history of the Montreal market shows — consistently, through the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 pandemic, and the 2022-2023 rate shock — is that periods of instability are followed, in the medium term, by a return of demand. And when demand comes back, it comes back fast. The buyers who were waiting all reappear at once. Competition intensifies. Multiple offers return. The property you’d been watching for six months sometimes sells in a weekend, often several tens of thousands of dollars above asking.
The irony is that waiting for calm produces exactly the conditions you were trying to avoid: rushing, overbidding, compromising.
In the target neighbourhoods — Rosemont, Villeray, the Plateau, Mile-End — this dynamic is amplified. Supply is structurally limited. Good properties don’t accumulate on the market while you think it over. They go. Global instability slows buyers down — but it doesn’t create new properties on streets where there’s nothing left to build.
The Real Question Isn’t “Is This the Right Time?”
This is where many people are asking the wrong question.
“Is this the right time to buy?” is a question about the market. It’s not the question that should guide your decision.
The question that should guide your decision is this: am I in a financial position where this purchase lets me live normally, even if something changes?
Financial stress is one of the most well-documented sources of unhappiness in daily life. A purchase that puts you near your maximum borrowing capacity, in a context of instability, with little cushion for the unexpected — that’s not boldness. That’s a recipe for regret. The property you chose with enthusiasm gradually becomes a source of monthly anxiety. You end up resenting a home you once loved.
The buyer who succeeds during instability isn’t the one who charges into the market. It’s the one who enters it with enough margin to never feel held hostage by their own decision.
Concretely: a comfortable monthly payment — well below the maximum your financial institution will approve. An emergency fund intact after the down payment and acquisition costs. A minimum five-year horizon. A property you can hold onto if your professional or personal situation changes.
If those four conditions are met, the question of “the right time” becomes secondary. You’re in a position where the market can fluctuate without threatening your quality of life.
What the Montreal Market Offers Right Now
For someone in that position, May 2026 presents a favourable context that many underestimate.
QPAREB data from April shows 4,744 transactions — down 7% year-over-year, but within the ten-year historical average. Buyers are taking more time. Condo inventory grew 19% in the first quarter. In several segments, bidding war pressure has eased. You have more time to inspect, to ask questions, to think — a luxury that didn’t exist in 2021.
Single-family homes and plexes remain in sustained demand, with short selling times. But even there, the prepared buyer has more negotiating room than two years ago.
Underlying demand remains present. A portion of newcomers who arrived in recent years are gradually reaching the financial stability needed to access homeownership and are transitioning from renting to buying. This flow contributes to sustaining demand in urban markets like Montreal, independently of short-term geopolitical cycles.
So — Now or Later?
There is no universal answer. The market will never tell you “it’s time.” Nobody will tell you with certainty.
If you’re financially solid, buying well within your means, with a long horizon, and the property you’re targeting genuinely fits your needs — the ambient instability is not a reason to wait. It’s simply the context in which the decision is made.
What won’t wait for you is the property. Not the market.
And If Waiting Is Your Decision — That’s Fine Too
Everything above is addressed to someone who is ready, but hesitating because of context. That’s not everyone.
If you’re someone who needs calm to make a big decision — if the current instability is genuinely weighing on you, if you’re losing sleep at the thought of signing a deed of sale right now — then wait. Seriously.
A real estate purchase made under emotional pressure, even in the best market conditions, can end badly. Not because the property was wrong. Because you weren’t ready — not financially, but psychologically. And that distinction matters just as much.
There’s no shame in recognizing that this isn’t your moment. Real estate is probably the largest financial transaction of your life. You have every right to do it at your own pace, on your own terms, when you feel solid — not when the market or someone else tells you that you should.
The market will still be there in six months. In a year. The neighbourhoods you’re targeting aren’t going anywhere. This decision is entirely yours — and making it at the right time for you is always better than making it at the right time for the market.
Do you have a real estate project?
Whether you’re buying, selling, or investing, I can help you make the best decision for your situation. A 30-minute conversation, at no cost and no pressure.
MVG Immobilier — your strategic real estate partner.
Sources
Bank of Canada — Press release, policy rate held at 2.25% (April 29, 2026)
Bank of Canada — Summary of deliberations, Governing Council decision of April 29, 2026
TD Economics — Analysis of the Bank of Canada decision, April 2026
QPAREB — Residential statistics Montreal CMA, April 2026
QPAREB — Residential barometer, Q1 2026
WOWA.ca — Canadian housing market report, April 2026